Credit Risk Strategy Manager – Balance Forecasting

Work Location: New York
Work Mode: Hybrid (3 days/week in office)
Salary Range: $120K/Yr - $135K/Yr Base + Annual Bonus

The posted range is the hiring range for this role — a subset of the broader range available to employees over time — and reflects base salary across our national hiring scale. Final offers are based on several factors, including the candidate's skills and experience, internal pay equity, work location, market conditions for the role, and the specific scope and responsibilities of the position. The top of the range is reserved for candidates who notably exceed the requirements; the lower end applies to those with less experience or fewer preferred qualifications. For positions based in higher-cost zones (e.g., California, New York, New Jersey), actual compensation may exceed the posted range; your recruiter will share specifics during the process

For more information on benefits and what we offer please visit us at US Careers and Benefits

EXL’s Credit Risk Practice works with leading banks to design and implement advanced risk management strategies. We are seeking a Credit Risk Strategy Manager to lead the forecasting workstreams for the DM campaign acquisition program of a leading US bank’s credit card portfolio. Broad objective is to build a curve-based forecasting framework, benchmark it against the existing Value Matrix that feeds into acquisition optimization. It requires deep expertise in forecasting and acquisition economics, along with the consultative skills to influence senior client stakeholders.

• Lead data pull and validation, and build a working understanding of the portfolio’s acquisition performance.
• Create response and balance curves across behavioral segment cohorts and develop the balance forecasting methodology.
• Complete the forecasting curve framework, and identify forecast gaps and improvement opportunities.
• Review the existing Value Matrix methodology and evaluate its assumptions across behavioral chorts
• Benchmark curve-based forecasts against the Value Matrix, assess offer-level segmentation impacts, and quantify incremental predictive power.
• Recommend optimization enhancements and a revised objective function based on the long-term value forecasts, in partnership with the optimization workstream.
• Design a champion/challenger testing framework and an implementation roadmap, and present final recommendations to senior leadership.
• Build long-term client relationships and identify opportunities to expand the engagement through cross-sell and up-sell of EXL’s analytics, modeling, and risk consulting services.

• Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, Finance, Engineering, or related field; Master’s preferred.
• 6+ years in credit risk strategy, forecasting, or credit analytics within consulting, banking, or financial services, including US credit cards.
• Proven experience building forecasting and value frameworks: response and balance build curves, vintage and loss curves, NPV, and Lifetime Value.
• Working knowledge of card offer constructs (APR, promotional and balance transfer offers, credit lines), bureau data, and FICO.
• Proficiency in SAS, SQL, and Python (Tableau is a plus); experience with large campaign and portfolio datasets.
• Solid background in segmentation, regression, time-series, and statistical techniques, along with champion/challenger test design.
• Strong communication and presentation skills, with a track record of managing client accounts and delivering measurable impact.
• Business development mindset with experience in proposal writing or solutioning.